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This is pulp fiction, right? A salacious dime-story mystery novel in Tamriel with largely fictional character and events? That's what I think, and it seems like others must feel the same way, because people very rarely seem to give it any consideration.

I'm just wondering where this communal certainty stems from. Did the devs say at any point that this was in-game fiction, or is it just that people don't think they would allow something like this to be published about "real" nobility?

The 'non-fictional' tomes often have some subtitle or note attached attesting to the veracity of the tale within. The lack of such information does bias it towards entertainment.

It's written like fiction, even if based on real people. It's either fiction or historical fiction, more than likely. I don't think an actual historical work would use this writing style, or lack a preface.

There are exceptions, though. For example, you might think Realizations of Acrobacy involved fictional people, except we got a chance to meet the characters in Morrowind. Hence my reticence at dismissing Talara without more info.

I've been thinking of a good reply to this for several days, but I've got nothing. The short answer is that we simply don't know enough to make that call. Until the events or characters from this book are referenced in some other fashion in a future game or novel, or some other source, all you're gonna get is circular arguments and conjecture. As far as I know, these events and characters are only ever referenced in this book series, and nowhere else. So really, we know next to nothing.